2022 predictions, how did we do?

Well, it turns out pretty well 😉

Let’s take a look back at what we predicted this time last year and just how accurate we were – 2022 predictions.

Based on qualitative engagement with a number of key stakeholders, we determined that the top trends in the industry in 2022 would be:

1 - Increased focus on net-zero building strategies - prioritising retrofitting

2 - Additional emphasis on employee wellbeing

3 - A stronger focus on cybersecurity

4 - Energy management strategies are becoming commonplace

5 - An acceleration of partnerships

And we were pretty accurate. But now that we can look back at the year retrospectively, what did we learn?

1 - Increased focus on net-zero building strategies - prioritising retrofitting

Net zero strategies definitely increased in importance throughout 2022. New legislation and the threat of fines have caused large corporations to take carbon reduction seriously and make changes to the operational performance of their buildings to improve their environmental impact. ESG directives and a multitude of industry certifications, such as LEED, provide best practices and guidance. However, it is clear that not enough is being done quickly enough. Many targets are set years in the future hence there is a lack of urgency.

We have seen all too well the devastating impact of climate change this year in the form of droughts, wildfires, floods and other extreme weather conditions. In the UK, we experienced our hottest day on record on the 19th of July 2022; temperatures soared to 40.3 °C. Similarly, Germany, Portugal, the United States, China, Japan, North Africa, Antarctica, the Arctic Circle, India, Pakistan, Australia and Argentina (Care Our Earth 2022) all experienced their hottest days on record in 2022.

At the recent COP27, there were mixed reviews, with many feeling that more could and should be done to reduce the global average temperature. The average global temperature has already risen by 1.2 degrees (compared to pre-industial times), and the general consensus from the event was that we are not going to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius directive set out in the Paris Agreement; therefore, we need to get really serious about the 2-degree pathway.

However, there were some glimmers of hope in the form of an agreement made to provide developing countries with financial assistance for losses and damage caused by the climate crisis. Despite having the smallest carbon footprint, countries such as Pakistan, Kenya and Barbados have experienced the most extreme impacts of climate change, leaving millions displaced. But, we are yet to find out how this will be financed (Planet Mark).

In addition, Brazil’s incoming president has vowed to end deforestation in the Amazon by 2030 (Planet Mark).

But it is clear, in the built space, a major retrofit programme must be implemented to improve the performance of current buildings and dramatically reduce the amount of carbon emitted from cities.

At COP27, Arup appeared on a panel discussion about decarbonization, stating:

“The reality is that most of our clients are motivated by risk…Once you turn the conversation not into an aspiration to save the world, but into, you are going to have stranded assets. No one’s going to want to rent your [building], no one’s going to want to buy it off you at a future date unless you improve the efficiency radically.’” That gets people to listen. - Jo da Silva DBE, Global Director of Sustainable Development at engineering firm Arup (Commercial Observer).

2 - Additional emphasis on employee wellbeing

Wellbeing has been discussed in depth this year, and there has been an influx of new tech on the market that addresses the need for healthier, safer workplaces.

Commercial buildings in many industries — retail, education and healthcare have adapted to include new technology and design principles such as air quality, ventilation, natural light, green spaces and spaces designed for wellness, e.g. meditation zones.

Frameworks such as WELL and BREEAM promote wellness strategies and offer guidance to create spaces designed for good wellbeing.

Many employers have adopted hybrid working as standard, offering a more flexible model for employees and making commercial buildings more experiential spaces.

Wellebing has grown in importance since COVID-19, but it is still a secondary priority to energy saving and efficiency.

3 - A stronger focus on cybersecurity

As buildings become more connected, cybersecurity becomes an important factor. Throughout 2022, businesses have increased their security and become more aware of the threats associated with fully connected buildings. As a result, we have seen IT departments and cybersecurity professionals increasingly get involved with the process of retrofitting or creating a smart building from scratch. They can advise the best ways to mitigate risk and minimise threats; there has also been an increase in demand for these skills from a system integration perspective.

Building specifications have also started to adapt to include stipulations for more secure protocols, e.g. HTTPS, as well as open building protocols such as MQTT and BACnet facilitating secure data publishing.

4 - Energy management strategies are becoming commonplace

Energy management has suddenly become more of an urgent topic driven by the dramatic increase in the price of energy in certain areas of the world.

It is clear the strategy to migrate to renewable energy still has a great deal of work to undergo before countries like the UK can become self-sufficient and gain control over energy sources and prices.

However, a recent update to Part L of the building regulations in the UK means for the first time, lighting controls have been added as a prerequisite for meeting regulations. All non-domestic new builds must produce 27% fewer CO2 emissions than previous standards, and existing buildings must install new controls to improve their efficiency when upgrading or extending their building or replacing their lighting system.

In addition, another piece of legislation impacting commercial buildings in the UK is the energy performance certificate (EPC). From 2025 all commercial properties will require an energy performance certificate. Commercial buildings being let must have a minimum EPC rating of at least ‘B’ by 2030, and the Government is considering a possible interim requirement of level ‘C’ by 2027. Buildings which fail to meet these new standards would require owners and landlords of commercial buildings to upgrade their stock (Insight 2022).

5 - An acceleration of partnerships

As predicted, there have been many partnerships in 2022. Below are a selection of some of the most notable; both large and small companies are actively partnering to offer a better solution to their customers, more value and more choice. There have also been a number of mergers and acquisitions that have fast-tracked the development roadmaps of companies, with energy management being a strong theme throughout the M&A activity.

Some notable partnerships in the industry this year have been: